About 6 in 10 Americans are confident that the midterm elections will be conducted fairly and accurately, rising to over two-thirds of registered voters. But that means nearly 4 in 10 Americans and about 3 in 10 voters are not confident elections will be conducted fairly and accurately, according to an ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos poll conducted using Ipsos’ KnowledgePanel.
Similar majorities of Democrats (70%) and Republicans (67%) are confident that midterms will be conducted fairly and accurately. A slimmer majority of independents (51%) say the same; 47% of independents are not confident midterm elections will be conducted fairly while just under a third of partisans say the same.
About two-thirds of Americans are confident that midterm votes will be counted accurately (65%), including 26% who are very confident. Confidence rises to 72% among registered voters. Those findings are roughly in line with results from ABC News/Washington Post polls conducted ahead of the 2023 presidential election and 2022 midterms, though fewer now say they are very confident.
The Trump administration recently escalated its feud with California over allegations of noncitizens voting, threatening to criminally prosecute election officials who knowingly count ballots from noncitizen voters. There is no evidence that noncitizen voting is widespread or that it has altered election results.
Larger majorities of Democrats (76%) and Republicans (68%) than independents (55%) are confident that votes will be counted accurately. Even a 65% majority of MAGA Republicans (who make up about 6 in 10 Republicans) are confident votes will be counted accurately, along with 66% of those who voted for President Donald Trump in 2024.
Trump accepting election results
Seven in 10 Americans are not confident that Trump will accept the results of the upcoming midterm elections if the Republican Party loses, including half who are “not at all” confident.
Just 28% of Americans say they are “very” (10%) or “somewhat” (18%) confident that Trump will accept the results of midterms if Republicans lose.
Americans’ confidence that Trump will accept the results of the midterms closely matches a December 2023 Washington Post-University of Maryland poll, in which 71% of Americans were not confident he would accept the results of the 2024 presidential election if he lost and 27% were confident.
Trump has continued to falsely assert that widespread voter fraud was why President Joe Biden won the 2020 presidential election, despite no evidence supporting his claims. Leading up to the 2024 presidential election, he said he would only accept the results if they were “fair and legal,” fueling distrust at that time that the election may not be fair. There are fears that Trump may attempt to delegitimize or not accept the results of the 2026 midterm elections if the Republican Party has widespread losses.
The ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos poll finds 94% of Democrats are not confident that Trump will accept the results of midterms if the Republicans lose, including 79% who are not at all confident. A majority of independents agree: 77% are not confident, including 55% who lack any confidence at all.
A 63% majority of Republicans are confident that Trump will accept the results if Republicans lose. Still, that confidence is weak; just 25% say they are very confident. Confidence is higher in Trump’s acceptance of a loss among MAGA Republicans: 74% of them are confident, including 34% who are very confident.
A 61% majority of Americans say Trump is not committed to free and fair elections, up from 56% in 2025. Today, 92% of Democrats, 69% of independents and 15% of Republicans say he is not committed to free and fair elections. Just 37% of Americans say Trump is committed to free and fair elections.
More Americans are confident that Democratic Party leaders will accept the results of midterms if their party loses, but it’s far from universal: 61% are confident and 38% are not confident.
Majorities of Democrats (88%) and independents (58%) are confident Democratic leaders will accept the results if they lose while 63% of Republicans are not confident.
House control expectations
When Americans were asked who they expected to win control of the U.S. House of Representatives in November, by about a 2-to-1 margin, more say they expect Democrats (35%) than Republicans (16%) to win, but another 28% say it is a tossup and 21% are unsure.
But Democrats are far more confident that their own party will win (57%) than Republicans are that the GOP will be victorious (38%).
In some ways, this reflects the margin of the congressional vote choice. The ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos poll finds Democratic candidates in congressional districts have an 8-point lead over Republicans among likely voters, 52% to 44%.
More than one-third of Republicans (35%) say the battle for the House is a tossup, along with 23% of Democrats.
By a more than 3-to-1 margin, more independents expect Democrats (33%) to win the House than Republicans (8%). But similar shares say it’s a tossup (28%) or that they’re not sure (30%).
See PDF for full results and detailed methodology.
Methodology: This ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos poll was conducted via the probability-based Ipsos KnowledgePanel Oct. 9-13, 2026, among 2,545 U.S. adults including 2,032 registered and likely voters and has an error margin of +/- 2 percentage points overall and +/- 2.2 points among registered and likely voters. All registered voters were assigned a probability of voting to produce likely voter results. Several questions were asked of a half sample of 1,271-1,274 adults with an error margin of +/- 2.8 points. Error margins among most other subgroups are larger.
ABC News’ Liz Schreier contributed to this report.
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