As temperatures drop across much of the United States, many travelers begin planning a winter escape to warmer destinations. This year, the timing may be particularly favorable for budget-conscious vacationers.
With the winter holiday season approaching, travelers are navigating a shifting landscape of travel prices and availability. According to recent data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, average airfares have dropped in the years following the COVID-19 pandemic, offering relief from near-historic highs in 2022. Combined with the travel lulls between Thanksgiving and the winter holidays, and again before spring break, winter can offer some of the year’s best opportunities to book an affordable vacation. Meanwhile, warmer cities in the southern U.S. continue to attract interest not just for their mild temperatures but also for their comparatively low costs and strong tourism infrastructure.
To help travelers get the most for their money, Dunhill Travel Deals—a leading source for travel deal discovery—analyzed affordability across warm-weather destinations in the U.S. The analysis reviewed key travel expenses, including lodging, dining, local attractions, and climate-related appeal, to calculate a composite score for each city. The findings aim to help travelers stretch their budgets and discover unexpectedly affordable vacation spots this winter.
Here are some of the key takeaways from the analysis:
- Airfare prices have declined sharply. As of August 2025, average airfare has decreased more than 18% from its pandemic peak and dropped below average prices from 2010.
- Texas dominates the rankings. Seven of the top 15 warm-weather winter destinations are located in the state, including Corpus Christi, Kingsville, and Kerrville.
- Louisiana and Arizona cities offer affordable, warm winter vacations. Areas of Louisiana’s Gulf Coast and parts of Arizona also perform strongly, offering affordable alternatives to more expensive sunbelt destinations like Miami or San Diego.
How Have Airfare Prices Changed Over Time?
After spiking during the pandemic, airfare prices have fallen significantly
Source: Dunhill Travel Deals analysis of U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data
Airfare costs rose sharply during the post-COVID travel rebound; however, since then, average fares have fallen significantly. Average airfare prices as of August 2025 sit 18.1% below peak pandemic prices and 3.8% below 2010 levels, according to data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. This decline reflects a broader set of industry shifts: jet fuel prices have stabilized after major spikes in 2022, airlines have restored and expanded capacity lost during the pandemic, and some airlines are prioritizing more fuel-efficient aircraft and streamlined operations to drive profitability. These factors have contributed to a more competitive and predictable environment on many domestic routes, helping drive prices down for consumers.
These airfare trends suggest that timing matters. While prices may spike around holiday periods, the broader downward trajectory in airfare pricing provides a window of opportunity for travelers—especially those booking between high-demand periods like Thanksgiving and spring break. Lower flight costs can meaningfully expand destination options, especially when combined with affordable lodging and attractions.
Warm-Weather Winter Vacation Destinations in the U.S.
Texas, Louisiana, and Arizona have top-rated, affordable, warm-winter getaways
Source: Dunhill Travel Deals analysis of NOAA, U.S. GSA, U.S. BTS, U.S. BEA, and U.S. Census CBP data
For travelers seeking both warmth and value this winter, cities in Texas, Louisiana, and Arizona stand out. An analysis of metro areas with relatively mild winter climates reveals that Texas dominates the list, claiming 7 of the top 15 destinations. Corpus Christi leads the rankings with a composite score of 90.43, followed closely by Kingsville (89.24), Kerrville (89.14), Port Lavaca (88.82), and Victoria (75.81)—all smaller cities and most are along or near the Gulf Coast offering mild winter weather, lower travel costs, and easy access to beaches and regional attractions.
Each location’s ranking is based on a combined score that takes into account several factors, including average winter temperatures, hotel rates, the cost of meals and local services, average airfare, and the availability of arts, entertainment, restaurants, and hotels. The scoring system emphasizes affordability and access to amenities in warm-weather locations, offering a more comprehensive view of travel value than just temperature or airfare alone.
Louisiana also offers warm-weather travel destinations during the winter season, with four cities—including Slidell (88.32), New Orleans (88.16), Baton Rouge (87.24), and Hammond (87.06)—ranking in the top 15. These Gulf Coast cities combine warm winter temperatures with comparatively low costs for lodging and meals, particularly if you avoid traveling near the final week of Mardi Gras celebrations. Arizona rounds out the top three states, with Prescott (90.18), Sierra Vista (88.89), and Payson (87.59) appearing in the top 15. These destinations offer generally dry, mild winter weather and are typically less expensive than larger desert cities like Phoenix or Tucson.
These regional patterns suggest that travelers willing to look beyond traditional tourist hubs can find excellent value. The highest-scoring destinations are often smaller cities with a lower cost of living, but they still offer access to outdoor recreation, historic downtowns, and local dining scenes—elements increasingly valued by budget-conscious travelers seeking meaningful experiences.
The full report covers 145 U.S. metropolitan and micropolitan areas with an average winter high temperature of 60°F or higher. For a detailed breakdown of each location’s ranking, composite score, affordability score, entertainment score, and average winter high temperature, see The Best U.S. Cities for an Affordable Warm-Weather Winter Vacation on Dunhill Travel Deals.
Methodology
Photo Credit: PeopleImages / Shutterstock
The data used in this study is from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)’s Climate at a Glance dataset, the U.S. General Services Administration (GSA)’s 2026 Per Diem Rates, the Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS)’s Q1 2025 Airline Origin & Destination Survey, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)’s 2023 Regional GDP & Personal Income dataset, and the U.S. Census Bureau’s 2023 County Business Patterns (CBP) dataset. To determine the best U.S. metropolitan areas for an affordable warm-weather winter vacation, researchers at Dunhill Travel Deals formulated a composite score consisting of the following factors and weights:
- Average winter high temperature: 15% weight—Calculated using NOAA data from December 2024–February 2025.
- Average nightly hotel rate: 15% weight—Calculated by averaging GSA per diem data, which are formulated to best represent mid-range hotels in each market, from December 2025–February 2026.
- Average daily meals & incidentals: 15% weight—Calculated by averaging GSA per diem data, which are formulated to represent the total cost of breakfast, lunch, dinner, and incidentals (tips), from December 2025–February 2026.
- Cost of services (compared to average): 15% weight—Calculated using the latest regional price parities data from the BEA.
- Average airfare: 10% weight—Calculated using a weighted average of domestic airfares (round-trip or one-way for which no return is purchased) for all airports within a 50-mile radius of each market, weighted by airport annual domestic passenger volume. The top 432 airports by domestic passenger volume were used.
- Concentration of arts, entertainment & recreation: 10% weight—Calculated using the total number of business establishments in arts, entertainment, and recreation (NAICS industry code 71) per 10,000 residents using the latest CBP data.
- Concentration of restaurants & bars: 10% weight—Calculated using the total number of restaurant and bar business establishments (NAICS industry code 722) per 10,000 residents using the latest CBP data.
- Concentration of hotels: 10% weight—Calculated using the total number of hotel business establishments (NAICS industry code 7211) per 10,000 residents using the latest CBP data.
Additionally, an affordability score was formulated using the average nightly hotel rate, average daily meals and incidentals, cost of services compared to average, and average airfare all weighted equally. The entertainment score was created by equally weighting the concentration of arts, entertainment and recreation, concentration of restaurants and bars, and concentration of hotels.To ensure relevance, the analysis was limited to metropolitan and micropolitan areas with an average winter high temperature of 60°F or higher, and only locations with complete data were considered for the analysis.
For complete results, see The Best U.S. Cities for an Affordable Warm-Weather Winter Vacation on Dunhill Travel Deals.
